Henderson vs. Silva, and why I hate giving predictions

I don’t like doing previews (usually because I get them wrong when asked to make a prediction). Also I hate having to actually register my opinion on how a fight will go, preferring to just watch the fight and enjoy it for as long as it lasts.

The up-coming Dan Henderson-Anderson Silva encounter is one of the most closely matched title fights of all time, even with their vastly different styles, and it is giving pickers fits.

Henderson, the iron-chinned brawler-cum-wrestler, has showed he is one of the most awkward opponents in the world. Ask Wanderlei Silva or Rampage. Silva is often credited as having the purest Muay Thai in MMA, but in reality he is as well rounded a mixed martial artist as you will find. A black belt in BJJ, he has no fear of going to the ground.

Everyone seems to think this fight will play out in the clinch, an area in which both men are specialists. Silva’s Muay Thai plum is notorious, whereas Henderson went to the Olympics as a Greco-Roman wrestler. But I think if anything that both men will actually look to avoid the clinch. They’re not stupid after all.

Henderson’s best bet is to steer clear of Silva’s knees and slug it out from the middle distance, rather than sit on the end of Silva’s long-range kicks and punches. He fights well in the pocket, as we saw against Jackson, and by mixing up his levels with combinations to the head and freestyle leg attacks, he should be able to keep Silva guessing where the fight is going, either landing up top or catching a leg for a takedown

Silva’s strategy is quite obviously sprawl and brawl, but you may even see him initiate the clinch on occasion. He’ll try to stay at range, but I see him moving in for one or two knees in the clinch before breaking back out again with strikes. He won’t stick around long in the clinch if he can help it, but that considered, he won’t have any fear of being taken down either – if he does go down, he is superb at working his way back up, using his long legs to attack for submissions or simply stalling.

Going against the habit of a lifetime, I’m registering my prediction for once. I see it being a close five round decision for Henderson, won possibly by pressing forward with punches and holding top position on the ground. If Silva isn’t actively aggressive and settles into a strategy of counter attacking, the judges may not pick up on it and award the decision to the challenger.